2024 Olympic Games: Stone Cold Locks And Event Predictability In Paris (Women’s Edition)

By Anya Pelshaw on SwimSwam

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024

Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024

La Défense Arena — Paris, France
LCM (50 meters)
Meet Central
Full Schedule
SwimSwam Preview Index

Swimming begins in just over two weeks in Paris at the 2024 Olympic Games. As we preview each event thoroughly in our separate event previews, this article will show the predictability of each event on the women’s side based on the podium. What podiums look obvious and what events are more up in the air?

Stone Cold Locks

Women’s 400 free relay: Australia leads the way with four women under the 53-second mark this year. Comparably, the US women only have had 2.
Women’s 400 medley relay: The US women enter the Olympics with three of the four World Records in the individual stroke 100s. Regan Smith now holds the 100 back, Lilly King holds the 100 breast, and Gretchen Walsh holds the 100 fly. Australia looks to be the 2nd biggest power in the race.
Women’s 800 free relay: Like the 400 free relay, Australia has led the world in the 200 free this season and look to be led by new World Record holder Ariarne Titmus and former World Record holder Mollie O’Callaghan. With the Australians so far ahead, the US and China look to their battle for the rest of the podium alongside another contender such as Canada.

Master Locks

Women’s 200 back: Kaylee McKeown and Regan Smith are the only swimmers in the field to be under the 2:06 mark this year as both have been in the 2:03 range. The event loses “stone cold lock” status as bronze seems to still be up for grabs.
Women’s 100 fly: Gretchen Walsh set a new World Record at US Trials and seems to be a favorite for gold but can be given “master lock” status for a podium spot. Torri Huske also swam one of the fastest times at US Trials, entering her as another podium favorite, although the two will not be without a challenge from swimmers such as Maggie MacNeil, Zhang Yufei, and Angelina Kohler.
Women’s 800 free: Katie Ledecky looks to earn her 4th-straight win in the event and leads the field as her best time is the fastest by almost nine seconds. Ariarne Titmus has been on fire recently and looks to be a podium lock as well.
Women’s 200 free: The event was the highlight of Australian Trials with Titmus’s World Record, followed closely behind by Mollie O’Callaghan. The two lead the way but the order is more unknown. 3rd place still seems open to numerous contenders.

Loose Locks

Women’s 100 back: Like the 200 back, Smith and McKeown lead the way but have not separated themselves from the pack as much which leaves the event looser. The top 5 in the field have been under the 58-mark this season.
Women’s 1500 free: Ledecky once again leads the 1500 free but as a whole, the podium has another slot open as Titmus does not compete in the event.

Bubble Contenders

Women’s 400 free: Titmus upset Ledecky in the event in 2020(1) and seems to be the favorite in the event here once again but Summer McIntosh also enters as a contender. This race enters the “bubble” category because although there are favorites, it is a lot harder to pick there order.
Women’s 200 fly: McIntosh and Smith enter as favorites. Smith won silver in the event in Tokyo behind Zhang Yufei so it is harder to see the outcome of the podium as the group is tightly bunched.
Women’s 400 IM: McIntosh seems to have gold locked up here but after that, the podium has some openings.
Women’s 100 breast: Lilly King was upset in Tokyo by Lydia Jacoby but Jacoby missed the US squad this year. The World Record holder King faces Tang Qianting who just missed King’s World Record in April.
Women’s 50 free: Sarah Sjostrom enters as a heavy favorite but after that, the field has openings.

Let Chaos Reign

Women’s 200 breast: Tatjana Smith won the event in 2020 but is the 3 seed in the event. Kate Douglass also is in the mix along with Tes Schouten and Lilly King.  
Women’s 100 free: A lot of entry changes make this one spicier. Siobhan Haughey won silver in the event in Tokyo and Mollie O’Callaghan has been on fire. Sarah Sjostrom joining the event also throws in a curveball. 
Women’s 200 IM: The race many have been waiting for seems to have a final for the ages. It could be Kate Douglass, Summer McIntosh, Kaylee McKeown, and Alex Walsh but joining the core names in the event recently is also Sydney Pickrem, Yu Yiting, and Anastasia Gorbenko. 

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