Olympic Odds To Defend: Looking To Paris – Women’s Edition
This article originally appeared in the 2024 Olympic Preview edition of SwimSwam Magazine, courtesy of author James Sutherland. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Magazine here.
Note that this article was written prior to some major national Olympic Trials meets, including Australia and the United States.
Women’s 1500 Free: 1/20 (95.2 percent)
It would take something unforeseen for Katie Ledecky not to defend Olympic gold in the women’s 1500 free. The inaugural champion of the event in Tokyo, Ledecky owns the 17 fastest swims ever and has been 20 seconds faster than the next-fastest active swimmer, Simona Quadarella. Quadarella won gold in the event at the 2019 World Championships after Ledecky withdrew due to illness, and it would take something similar for Ledecky not to find her way back to the top of the podium.
Women’s 800 Free: 1/4 (80.0 percent)
The 800 free is a similar story to the 1500 for Ledecky, though she’s much less of a lock given her competition. It might sound like a lot, but both Li Bingjie and Ariarne Titmus were within five seconds of Ledecky at the 2023 World Championships, and Summer McIntosh is coming off handing Ledecky her first loss in the event in 13 years in February. McIntosh went 8:11.39, becoming the #2 performer in history, and if she focuses on the event for Paris, it stands to reason Ledecky will have a battle on her hands. That might not be the case with McIntosh having a schedule conflict with the 200 IM, and Ledecky is still undefeated in the event on the international stage.
Women’s 200 Back: 1/3 (75.0 percent)
Kaylee McKeown has an unblemished record in the 200 back ever since the 2019 World Championships, where American Regan Smith stunningly broke the longstanding world record with the first two sub-2:04 swims in history. McKeown was the distant runner-up to Smith but has gone untouched in five years since. McKeown won Olympic gold in Tokyo and then reeled off consecutive world titles while breaking Smith’s world record in March 2023. At the 2023 Worlds, McKeown edged out Smith by slim margins in the 50 and 100 back but ran away with the 200 by more than one second. As of April, both swimmers had already been in the 2:03s in 2024, so Smith clearly has a shot despite McKeown’s recent dominance.
Women’s 100 Back: 1/2 (66.6 percent)
This race will also be a McKeown/Smith showdown. There have been 34 swims under 58 seconds in swimming history, and 31 of them have been done by either McKeown (16) or Smith (15). McKeown sat out of the event at the 2022 World Championships to key in on the 200 IM, opening the door for Smith to win the title. In 2023, McKeown topped Smith by a quarter of a second at the World Championships and then brought her world record down to 57.33 on the World Cup circuit a few months later. Smith, who matched her fastest swim since 2019 in March (57.64), could easily win, but McKeown is tough to bet against given her ability to perform when it counts.
Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker)
Women’s 200 Breast: 1/2 (66.6 percent)
Tatjana Smith‘s (nee Schoenmaker) status as the clear-cut favorite for gold in the women’s 200 breast hinged on the presence of Evgeniia Chikunova, the Russian teenager who shattered Smith’s world record last year by 1.40 seconds in 2:17.55. Chikunova did not apply for neutral status in order to compete in Paris, leaving Smith as the frontrunner in the event. The South African broke an eight-year-old world record in Tokyo in 2:18.95, and after the only sub-2:20 swims of her career came in the three rounds at those Games, she dropped a time of 2:19.01 in April at the South African National Championships. That reaffirms the 26-year-old’s status as the gold medal favorite, but she’ll have to deal with American Kate Douglass and Dutchwoman Tes Schouten, who have both been sub-2:20 in 2024.
Women’s 400 Free: 4/6 (60.0 percent)
The most highly anticipated race of the 2023 World Championships was a non-event. With reigning Olympic champion Ariarne Titmus, defending world champion Katie Ledecky and newly minted world record holder Summer McIntosh set to go head-to-head for the first time in two years (and the first time since McIntosh evolved into arguably the best swimmer on the planet) the race was predicted to potentially challenge the “Race of the Century” we saw in 2004 between Ian Thorpe, Pieter van den Hoogenband, and Michael Phelps in the men’s 200 free in Athens. Well, so much for that. Titmus obliterated the field, breaking McIntosh’s world record by seven-tenths of a second in 3:55.38. Ledecky was the distant runner-up in 3:58.73, and McIntosh fell outside the podium, adding three and a half seconds. Titmus has caught flack at times for sitting out of major meets — she picks her spots, but she doesn’t often miss. There have only been six swims in history under 3:57, and four of them have come from Titmus. Ledecky hasn’t broken 3:58 since Tokyo, and McIntosh has only done so once, granted it was the #2 swim in history (3:56.08). With that, Titmus is still a big favorite, having beaten Ledecky three straight times on the big stage between the 2019 and 2023 World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics. McIntosh figures to be Titmus’ biggest threat, especially since she’s consistently improving, but the odds remain on the Australian’s side.
Women’s 200 Free: 2/1 (33.3 percent)
While Titmus is the favorite in the 400 free, it’s her countrywoman Mollie O’Callaghan who holds that distinction in the 200 free. After she was the silver medalist at the 2022 World Championships behind China’s Yang Junxuan, O’Callaghan beat Titmus head-to-head at the 2023 Worlds, breaking Federica Pellegrini’s super-suited world record to boot in a time of 1:52.85. Titmus was a close runner-up in 1:53.01, a new personal best and the third-fastest swim ever, and the defending champion is still the owner of four of the six fastest times ever (and the fastest relay leg ever — 1:52.41). But in addition to O’Callaghan, there’s also Summer McIntosh and Siobhan Haughey in contention with multiple 1:53s under their belts. So in order to defend, Titmus will need to be at her absolute best, and even that might not be enough.
Women’s 200 Fly: 3/1 (25.0 percent)
Zhang Yufei steamrolled her way to gold in the 200 fly in Tokyo, posting the fastest time we’d seen since 2009 (and #3 all-time) in 2:03.86. In the three years since, we’ve seen Summer McIntosh win back-to-back world titles, and Regan Smith come within .01 of Zhang’s time at 2:03.87, while Zhang has been up and down and, at times, appeared to be more focused on the shorter events. She came back around to the 200 fly in 2023, but still, her fastest swim since Tokyo is 2:05.57, well short of what Smith and McIntosh (2:04.06) are capable of. That puts Zhang at least third on the depth chart, but we can’t ignore her ability to deliver in the big moments. Smith has been inconsistent in major meets, and McIntosh’s daunting event schedule figures to be taxing.
Women’s 100 Fly: 4/1 (20.0 percent)
One of the best races of the last decade unfolded in Tokyo in the women’s 100 fly. Three years later, the top four times from the Olympic final still rank among the 12 fastest performances ever. Torri Huske was a quarter of a second shy of the world record and didn’t medal. Getting her hands on the wall first and earning the distinction of being Olympic champion was Maggie MacNeil, coming through under pressure for the second straight time after she upset Sarah Sjostrom for gold at the 2019 World Championships. MacNeil, 24, opted to only race relays at the 2022 Worlds — though she did top Olympic bronze medalist Emma McKeon for gold at the Commonwealth Games — and then was the silver medalist to Tokyo runner-up Zhang Yufei at the 2023 World Championships. MacNeil has a penchant for coming up clutch but faces a daunting task in repeating as champion in Paris. Huske has established herself as the early frontrunner after swimming 55.68 in April, a time MacNeil has only been quicker than once — her Olympic-winning 55.59. Any one of the top four from Tokyo can realistically win, and what Gretchen Walsh did in the NCAA puts her in the conversation as well.
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