How Accurate Were SwimSwam’s Way-Too-Early Olympic Trials Picks?
On January 27, 2023, myself (Yanyan Li), Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Robert Gibbs, Nicole Miller, Anya Pelshaw, and James Sutherland put together SwimSwam’s way-too-early 2024 U.S. Olympic trials predictions, around a year and a half before the competition began. Now that the meet has concluded, let’s take a look back at our predictions to see how accurate we were.
To look at the original prediction article, click here.
Final Results
Before calculating the final score, I put together a scoring system to determine who most accurately picked out the 2024 U.S. Olympic team. For one event, writers who got the exact placement of a swimmer correct earned three points, writers who correctly placed a swimmer in the top three (or between fourth to sixth place for the 100 and 200 free races) earned one point, and writers who correctly placed a swimmer in the top six but not the top three/bottom three for 100 and 200 free races earned half a point. Based on this scoring system, Nicole had the most accurate predictions with 116.5 earned points, while Braden had the least accurate ones with 95.5 earned points. The maximum amount of points you could earn through this system was 288 points.
I understand that this scoring system isn’t perfect, but I felt that it was the system that accounted for accuracy in the most objective manner.
Scoring System:
Correct placement: 3 points
Correctly placed in top 3 (or in top 4-6 for the 100/200 free): 1 point
Correctly placed in top 6 for 100/200 free (but not top 3 or top 4-6): 0.5 point
Rankings:
Nicole — 116.5 points
Yanyan — 111.5 points
Sophie — 107 points
Robert — 106.5 points
James — 104.5 points
Anya — 101 points
Braden — 95.5 points
Regan Smith (and Ryan Murphy)…?
The most controversial trend in our predictions was the lack of confidence in Regan Smith. Both Anya and I picked her to miss the Olympic team in its entirety, three writers had her missing the team in both backstroke events, and four writers had her missing the 200 back — an event where she was then the world record holder in. In the 200 back, James was the only writer who accurately predicted her winning the event.
We got a lot of flack for being this skeptical over Smith, and rightfully so. At trials, she was arguably the top-performing female swimmer, winning the 100 back, 200 back, and 200 fly. In addition, she also broke the world record in the 100 back final. So clearly, she made us eat our words.
I can’t speak for everyone, but a possible reason for the wariness around Smith’s career then was her sudden move to leave Stanford and collegiate swimming to train with Bob Bowman at Arizona State as a pro. She was just six months removed from making that decision, and there was still some uncertainty around whether she’d still succeed after making such a big life change (that being said, at the time she was also coming off a meet where she broke 2:05 in the 200 back for the first time since 2019). In addition, at that point, she had just missed two consecutive international teams in the 200 back. Clearly, those concerns about Smith didn’t pan out over the next year in a half.
Another miss in the backstroke department came within the men’s 100 back. Only Robert and James had Ryan Murphy winning the event, and only three writers had him making the team. Meanwhile, five of seven writers had Hunter Armstrong winning the event, while those who didn’t pick Murphy to make the team picked either Daniel Diehl or Shaine Casas to do so. Murphy proved his naysayers wrong, going on to win the 100 back at trials by a comfortable margin.
Notably, these predictions were made when Armstrong had a lot of momentum — he beat Murphy in the 100 back final at the 2022 World Championships, and was also the world record holder in the 50 back at that point. Diehl was also just over a month removed from nearly breaking the 53-second barrier in the 100 back as a 17-year-old, while Casas put up Worlds medal-worthy performances in multiple events at U.S. Nationals in August 2022.
So go ahead, feel free to roast us, we admit that we truly missed the mark with these picks.
Gretchen Walsh Expectations
A year and a half in advance, most SwimSwam writers expected Gretchen Walsh to be America’s top female sprinter prior to Paris. Four out of seven writers had her winning both the 50 and 100 free, and every writer besides Robert picked her to claim an individual spot in either event.
At the end of 2022, Walsh was the fifth-ranked 100 freestyler and third-ranked 50 freestyler in America, and was coming off a U.S. Nationals meet where she broke 54 seconds in the 100 free for the first time 2019. She also garnered massive momentum due to the ongoing 2022-23 NCAA season, where she was then undefeated in individual events within collegiate competition. However, she had never qualified for a senior international meet at that point.
Walsh still ended up being a successful sprint freestyler, taking second in the 50 free and third in the 100 free at Olympic trials. However, what SwimSwam did not envision was that her Virginia training partner Kate Douglass would end up becoming America’s top sprinter. Douglass, who won the 100 free and became the American record holder in the 50 free, was not put in the top three for the 50 free by any writer and only Braden had her getting an individual spot in the 100 free (finishing second).
Meanwhile, writers didn’t foresee that Walsh would reach the top of American sprint butterfly. Only Yanyan and Nicole picked her to make the team in the 100 fly (finishing second), and she later went on to not only win the race at trials, but break the world record for the event in semi-finals.
Near/Total Misses
There were notably nine Paris Olympians — Emma Weber, Chris Guiliano, Anna Peplowski, Keaton Jones, Blake Pieroni (who announced his initial retirement in August 2022), Charlie Swanson, Luke Whitlock, Aaron Shackell, and Charlie Swanson — that were not picked by a single writer to qualify for the meet. Notably, this came even after Swanson made the 2022 U.S. World Championships team.
There were also four Olympians that were only picked by a single writer to make Paris, with those swimmers being Jack Alexy (Robert, fifth in the 100 free), Alex Shackell (Nicole, second in the 200 fly), Erika Connolly (Robert, sixth in the 100 free), and Emma Weyant (Anya, second in the 400 IM). Weyant and Connolly were both on the 2022 U.S. World Championships, and Weyant was the reigning worlds bronze medalist in the 400 IM at the time.
Meanwhile, Jake Magahey, Claire Curzan, and Bella Sims were picked by every writer to qualify for Paris, but none of them did. Curzan and Sims were both 2021 Tokyo Olympians and members of the 2022 Worlds team, while Magahey still has yet to qualify for a long course Worlds or Olympic games.
Correct Sweeps
Thirteen placements were correctly predicted by all seven writers: Caeleb Dressel winning the 50 free/100 fly, Bobby Finke winning the 800/1500 free, Nic Fink winning the 100 breast, Carson Foster winning the 400 IM, Katie Ledecky winning the 200/400/800/1500 free, Douglass winning the 200 breast, Katie Grimes winning the 400 IM, and Grimes getting second in the 1500 free.
Most of those picks seemed like pretty much a given even a year and a half in advance. However, there were some question marks surrounding Dressel and Douglass’ sweeps. At that point, Dressel was on a competitive swimming hiatus, which started in June 2022 when he abruptly left in the middle of the 2022 World Championships and didn’t end until May 2023. There were many questions surrounding whether he’d ever return to form then — which he did, but it only happened this year (he missed the 2023 World Championships team).
Meanwhile, Douglass didn’t really gain a dominant advantage on Lilly King until she broke the American Record in the 200 breast this January. She beat King for the first time at an international qualification meet this year, but finished second to her at both the 2022 and 2023 World Championship qualification meets.
Shoutout to Robert, who was the only writer that correctly predicted an entire top three in an event (the men’s 400 IM).
Full Men’s Results
ACTUAL RESULT
YANYAN
BRADEN
ROBERT
SOPHIE
NICOLE
ANYA
JAMES
50 free
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Chris Guiliano
David Curtiss
Michael Andrew
Michael Andrew
David Curtiss
David Curtiss
David Curtiss
Michael Andrew
Matt King
Matt King
David Curtiss
David Curtiss
Michael Andrew
Brooks Curry
Brooks Curry
David Curtiss
100 free
Chris Guiliano
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Brooks Curry
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Jack Alexy
Ryan Held
Shaine Casas
Ryan Held
Caeleb Dressel
Brooks Curry
Brooks Curry
Brooks Curry
Caeleb Dressel
Brooks Curry
Ryan Held
Brooks Curry
Shaine Casas
Ryan Held
Matt King
Matt King
Hunter Armstrong
Matt King
Kaii Winkler
Matt King
Ryan Held
Matt King
Ryan Held
Ryan Held
Ryan Held
Zach Apple
Brooks Curry
Jack Alexy
Matt King
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Drew Kibler
Matt King
Shaine Casas
Matt King
Adam Chaney
Drew Kibler
Hunter Armstrong
Drew Kibler
Kieran Smith
200 free
Luke Hobson
Kieran Smith
Drew Kibler
Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith
Carson Foster
Luke Hobson
Kieran Smith
Chris Guiliano
Luke Hobson
Carson Foster
Drew Kibler
Drew Kibler
Kieran Smith
Carson Foster
Drew Kibler
Drew Kibler
Carson Foster
Kieran Smith
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Luke Hobson
Kieran Smith
Luke Hobson
Kieran Smith
Henry McFadden
Henry McFadden
Henry McFadden
Henry McFadden
Luca Urlando
Drew Kibler
Carson Foster
Brooks Curry
Luca Urlando
Gabriel Jett
Luke Hobson
Jake Magahey
Drew Kibler
Henry McFadden
Henry McFadden
Blake Pieroni
Jake Magahey
Maximus Williamson
Jake Magahey
Luke Hobson
Jake Magahey
Jake Magahey
Jake Magahey
400 free
Aaron Shackell
Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith
Jake Magahey
Carson Foster
Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith
Jake Mitchell
Jake Magahey
Ross Dant
Jake Magahey
Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith
Jake Magahey
Jake Mitchell
Jake Magahey
Jake Mitchell
Jake Mitchell
Jake Mitchell
Jake Mitchell
Jake Mitchell
Luke Hobson
800 free
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Luke Whitlock
Will Gallant
David Johnston
Ross Dant
David Johnston
David Johnston
David Johnston
David Johnston
Daniel Matheson
David Johnston
Charlie Clark
Charlie Clark
Charlie Clark
Charlie Clark
Will Gallant
Charlie Clark
1500 free
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
David Johnston
Alec Enyeart
Charlie Clark
David Johnston
Will Gallant
David Johnston
Will Gallant
Charlie Clark
Luke Whitlock
David Johnston
David Johnston
Charlie Clark
David Johnston
Charlie Clark
David Johnston
David Johnston
100 back
Ryan Murphy
Hunter Armstrong
Hunter Armstrong
Ryan Murphy
Hunter Armstrong
Hunter Armstrong
Hunter Armstrong
Ryan Murphy
Hunter Armstrong
Daniel Diehl
Shaine Casas
Daniel Diehl
Daniel Diehl
Shaine Casas
Ryan Murphy
Hunter Armstrong
Jack Aikins
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Hunter Armstrong
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
200 back
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Shaine Casas
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy
Keaton Jones
Jack Aikins
Ryan Murphy
Jack Aikins
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Jack Aikins
Daniel Diehl
Daniel Diehl
Shaine Casas
Daniel Diehl
Daniel Diehl
Jack Aikins
Daniel Diehl
100 breast
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Charlie Swanson
Max McHugh
Josh Matheny
Michael Andrew
Michael Andrew
Matt Fallon
Josh Matheny
Michael Andrew
Josh Matheny
Josh Matheny
Michael Andrew
Max McHugh
Josh Matheny
Josh Matheny
Kevin Houseman
Josh Matheny
200 breast
Matt Fallon
Matt Fallon
Matt Fallon
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
Matt Fallon
Matt Fallon
Matt Fallon
Josh Matheny
Nic Fink
AJ Pouch
Matt Fallon
Matt Fallon
AJ Pouch
Nic Fink
Nic Fink
AJ Pouch
AJ Pouch
Nic Fink
Will Licon
AJ Pouch
Nic Fink
AJ Pouch
AJ Pouch
100 fly
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Caeleb Dressel
Thomas Heilman
Dare Rose
Thomas Heilman
Thomas Heilman
Thomas Heilman
Thomas Heilman
Shaine Casas
Thomas Heilman
Dare Rose
Thomas Heilman
Michael Andrew
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Michael Andrew
Aiden Hayes
Luca Urlando
200 fly
Thomas Heilman
Luca Urlando
Gabriel Jett
Luca Urlando
Thomas Heilman
Luca Urlando
Carson Foster
Luca Urlando
Luca Urlando
Carson Foster
Thomas Heilman
Carson Foster
Gabriel Jett
Gabriel jett
Gabriel Jett
Gabriel Jett
Mason Laur
Gabriel Jett
Luca Urlando
Zach Harting
Luca Urlando
Thomas Heilman
Aaron Shackell
Aaron Shackell
200 IM
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Shaine Casas
Carson Foster
Shaine Casas
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Carson Foster
Chase Kalisz
Carson Foster
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Shaine Casas
Chase Kalisz
Michael Andrew
Chase Kalisz
Shaine Casas
Baylor Nelson
Michael Andrew
Baylor Nelson
Michael Andrew
400 IM
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Carson Foster
Chase Kalisz
Chase Kalisz
Baylor Nelson
Chase Kalisz
Maximus Williamson
Chase Kalisz
Bobby Finke
Chase Kalisz
Jay Litherland
Bobby Finke
Maximus Williamson
Jay Litherland
Bobby Finke
Bobby Finke
Chase Kalisz
Kevin Vargas
Full Women’s Results
ACTUAL RESULT
YANYAN
BRADEN
ROBERT
SOPHIE
NICOLE
ANYA
JAMES
50 free
Simone Manuel
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Abbey Weitzeil
Gretchen Walsh
Torri Huske
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Simone Manuel
Claire Curzan
Gretchen Walsh
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Abbey Weitzeil
Erika Connolly
Abbey Weitzeil
Claire Curzan
Abbey Weitzeil
Claire Curzan
Abbey Weitzeil
Torri Huske
100 free
Kate Douglass
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Torri Huske
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Kate Douglass
Claire Curzan
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Claire Curzan
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Kate Douglass
Torri Huske
Simone Manuel
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Torri Huske
Claire Curzan
Simone Manuel
Claire Curzan
Abbey Weitzeil
Abbey Weitzeil
Abbey Weitzeil
Simone Manuel
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Abbey Weitzeil
Abbey Weitzeil
Claire Curzan
Erin Gemmell
Kate Douglass
Anna Moesch
Abbey Weitzeil
Abbey Weitzeil
Erika Connolly
Simone Manuel
Camille Spink
Erika Connolly
Simone Manuel
Natalie Hinds
Natalie Hinds
Simone Manuel
200 free
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky (scratch)
Katie Ledecky (Scratch)
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Claire Weinstein
Erin Gemmell
Bella Sims
Erin Gemmell
Bella Sims
Erin Gemmell
Bella Sims
Bella Sims
Paige Madden
Bella Sims
Claire Weinstein
Bella Sims
Erin Gemmell
Bella Sims
Claire Weinstein
Claire Weinstein
Erin Gemmell
Claire Weinstein
Leah Smith
Claire Weinstein
Claire Weinstein
Claire Weinstein
Erin Gemmell
Erin Gemmell
Anna Peplowski
Paige Madden
Erin Gemmell
Paige Madden
Leah Smith
Katie Grimes
Kayla Wilson
Alex Walsh
Alex Shackell
Leah Smith
Alex Walsh
Leah Smith
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Leah Smith
400 free
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Paige Madden
Erin Gemmell
Bella Sims
Katie Grimes
Bella Sims
Erin Gemmell
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Jillian Cox
Paige Madden
Katie Grimes
Leah Smith
Erin Gemmell
Bella Sims
Bella Sims
Leah Smith
800 free
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Paige Madden
Katie Grimes
Bella Sims
Leah Smith
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Jillian Cox
Leah Smith
Leah Smith
Katie Grimes
Leah Smith
Leah Smith
Bella Sims
Leah Smith
1500 free
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Ledecky
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Ashley Twichell
Erica Sullivan
Erica Sullivan
Erica Sullivan
Jillian Cox
Erica Sullivan
Mariah Denigan
Erica Sullivan
100 back
Regan Smith
Katharine Berkoff
Claire Curzan
Regan Smith
Regan Smith
Regan Smith
Katharine Berkoff
Regan Smith
Katharine Berkoff
Claire Curzan
Rhyan White
Rhyan White
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Kennedy Noble
Regan Smith
Katharine Berkoff
Katharine Berkoff
Katharine Berkoff
Gretchen Walsh
Gretchen Walsh
Katharine Berkoff
200 back
Regan Smith
Phoebe Bacon
Phoebe Bacon
Phoebe Bacon
Phoebe Bacon
Phoebe Bacon
Phoebe Bacon
Regan Smith
Phoebe Bacon
Claire Curzan
Rhyan White
Regan Smith
Rhyan White
Regan Smith
Bella Sims
Phoebe Bacon
Claire Curzan
Regan Smith
Regan Smith
Rhyan White
Regan Smith
Rhyan White
Regan Smith
Rhyan White
100 breast
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lydia Jacoby
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lydia Jacoby
Lilly King
Emma Weber
Lydia Jacoby
Kaitlyn Dobler
Lilly King
Kaitlyn Dobler
Lydia Jacoby
Lilly King
Lydia Jacoby
Lydia Jacoby
Kaitlyn Dobler
Lydia Jacoby
Lucy Thomas
Lydia Jacoby
Kaitlyn Dobler
Kaitlyn Dobler
Kaitlyn Dobler
200 breast
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lilly King
Lilly King
Annie Lazor
Lilly King
Alex Walsh
Lydia Jacoby
Annie Lazor
Ella Nelson
Annie Lazor
Annie Lazor
Lilly King
Annie Lazor
100 fly
Gretchen Walsh
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Claire Curzan
Torri Huske
Torri Huske
Gretchen Walsh
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan
Gretchen Walsh
Torri Huske
Claire Curzan
Regan Smith
Kelly Pash
Gretchen Walsh
Gabi Albiero
Gretchen Walsh
Claire Curzan
Gabi Albiero
Gretchen Walsh
200 fly
Regan Smith
Dakota Luther
Hali Flickinger
Regan Smith
Regan Smith
Regan Smith
Hali Flickinger
Hali Flickinger
Alex Shackell
Hali Flickinger
Regan Smith
Dakota Luther
Kelly Pash
Alex Shackell
Kelly Pash
Regan Smith
Linsday Looney
Regan Smith
Kelly Pash
Lindsay Looney
Hali Flickinger
Kelly Pash
Regan Smith
Tess Howley
200 IM
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Alex Walsh
Kate Douglass
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh
Leah Hayes
Alex Walsh
Leah Hayes
Leah Hayes
Leah Hayes
Kate Douglass
Isabel Ivey
Leah Hayes
Kate Douglass
Leah Hayes
Kate Douglass
Kate Douglass
Beata Nelson
Leah Hayes
400 IM
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Katie Grimes
Emma Weyant
Leah Hayes
Leah Hayes
Alex Walsh
Hali Flickinger
Leah Hayes
Emma Weyant
Hali Flickinger
Lillia Bognar
Emma Weyant
Alex Walsh
Hali Flickinger
Emma Weyant
Emma Weyant
Leah Hayes
Emma Weyant
Read the full story on SwimSwam: How Accurate Were SwimSwam’s Way-Too-Early Olympic Trials Picks?