Reviewing SwimSwam’s 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Event Predictions – Men’s Edition
By James Sutherland on SwimSwam
2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS
June 15-23, 2024
Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
LCM (50 Meters)
Meet Central
Live Results
SwimSwam Preview Index
The U.S. Olympic Trials can be wildly unpredictable, and that proved to be the case last week as an unforgettable nine days of racing in Indianapolis saw its fair share of surprises, though a lot of the big stars made good on their status as pre-race favorites.
SwimSwam’s official picks tied for 34th out of nearly 1000 entries in the Pick ’em Contest, a solid mark, though that only accounts for the top four picks in each event.
Taking a bird’s eye view of all of our picks, let’s review how the SwimSwam picks did accounting for the eight finalists in each event.
See all of our picks at the SwimSwam Preview Index here.
For the men, we correctly predicted seven of the eight finalists in two events, the 400 free and 800 free, which is an improvement compared to the women where we only went 7/8 in the 200 free.
We also picked 6/8 finalists in the 100 and 200 free, 200 back, 100 and 200 breast, and 200 fly, and the rest of the events were 5/8.
A total of 10 of our finalist selections ended up scratching from their respective events, either before the prelims or after one of the early rounds. That included two scratches from Daniel Diehl and three of our picks opting out of the 400 IM:
Drew Kibler – 400 free
Michael Brinegar – 1500 free*
Daniel Diehl – 100 back, 200 IM
Destin Lasco – 200 back
Shaine Casas – 100 fly
Carson Foster – 200 fly
Bobby Finke – 400 IM
Baylor Nelson – 400 IM
Mason Laur – 400 IM
*Brinegar dropped the 1500 free after he received a four-year doping suspension that same day.
Below, find the swimmers ordered 1-8 based on how we predicted them to finish, with their final placing in the far right column. At the bottom of each event, “Moving In” refers to the swimmers who made the final that we didn’t predict, while the bottom right corner gives a tally of the correct finalists we picked out of eight.
50 Freestyle
PICKS
FINISH
1
Caeleb Dressel
1st
2
Jack Alexy
4th
3
Michael Andrew
5th
4
Ryan Held
6th
5
Matt King
3rd
6
Jonny Kulow
9th
7
David Curtiss
16th
8
Brooks Curry
20th
Moving In:
Chris Guiliano (2nd), Quintin McCarty (7th), Adam Chaney (8th)
5/8
100 Freestyle
PICKS
FINISH
1
Jack Alexy
2nd
2
Caeleb Dressel
3rd
3
Chris Guiliano
1st
4
Ryan Held
5th
5
Matt King
6th
6
Jonny Kulow
10th
7
Brooks Curry
12th
8
Macguire McDuff
8th
Moving In:
Hunter Armstrong (4th), Destin Lasco (7th)
6/8
200 Freestyle
PICKS
FINISH
1
Luke Hobson
1st
2
Kieran Smith
4th
3
Drew Kibler
3rd
4
Aaron Shackell
8th
5
Jake Mitchell
7th
6
Jake Magahey
12th
7
Gabriel Jett
18th
8
Blake Pieroni
6th
Moving In:
Chris Guiliano (2nd), Brooks Curry (5th)
6/8
400 Freestyle
PICKS
FINISH
1
Kieran Smith
2nd
2
Aaron Shackell
1st
3
David Johnston
3rd
4
Jake Mitchell
8th
5
Jake Magahey
6th
6
Drew Kibler
scratch
7
Bobby Finke
4th
8
Luke Whitlock
5th
Moving In:
7/8
800 Freestyle
PICKS
FINISH
1
Bobby Finke
1st
2
Luke Whitlock
2nd
3
David Johnston
4th
4
Charlie Clark
6th
5
Ross Dant
5th
6
Will Gallant
7th
7
Daniel Matheson
3rd
8
Michael Brinegar
12th/suspension
Moving In:
Sean Green (8th)
7/8
1500 Freestyle
PICKS
FINISH
1
Bobby Finke
1st
2
Charlie Clark
6th
3
Daniel Matheson
4th
5
Will Gallant
13th
6
Luke Whitlock
3rd
7
David Johnston
2nd
8
Levi Sandidge
9th
Moving In:
Luke Ellis (5th), William Mulgrew (7th), Carson Hick (8th)
5/8
100 Backstroke
PICKS
FINISH
1
Ryan Murphy
1st
2
Hunter Armstrong
2nd
3
Justin Ress
5th
4
Destin Lasco
11th
5
Shaine Casas
9th
6
Daniel Diehl
scratch
7
Jack Aikins
3rd
8
Jack Wilkening
7th
Moving In:
Adam Chaney (4th), Will Modglin (6th), Tommy Janton (8th)
5/8
200 Backstroke
PICKS
FINISH
1
Ryan Murphy
1st
2
Jack Aikins
3rd
3
Keaton Jones
2nd
4
Destin Lasco
scratch
5
Daniel Diehl
6th
6
Hunter Tapp
8th
7
Tommy Janton
4th
8
Ian Grum
11th
Moving In:
Jay Litherland (5th), Caleb Maldari (7th)
6/8
100 Breaststroke
PICKS
FINISH
1
Nic Fink
1st
2
Michael Andrew
8th
3
Jake Foster
6th
4
Josh Matheny
3rd
5
Noah Nichols
5th
6
Matt Fallon
13th
7
Cody Miller
15th
8
Charlie Swanson
2nd
Moving In:
Liam Bell (4th), Luke Rodarte (7th)
6/8
200 Breaststroke
PICKS
FINISH
1
Matt Fallon
1st
2
Jake Foster
7th
3
Nic Fink
6th
4
Josh Matheny
2nd
5
Daniel Roy
5th
6
Will Licon
4th
7
Charlie Swanson
10th
8
Cody Miller
17th
Moving In:
AJ Pouch (3rd), Josh Bey (8th)
6/8
100 Butterfly
PICKS
FINISH
1
Caeleb Dressel
1st
2
Thomas Heilman
2nd
3
Dare Rose
3rd
4
Shaine Casas
scratch
5
Aiden Hayes
5th
6
Gabriel Jett
15th
7
Luke Miller
7th
8
Trenton Julian
9th
Moving In:
Zach Harting (4th), Ryan Murphy (6th), Kaii Winkler (8th)
5/8
200 Butterfly
PICKS
FINISH
1
Thomas Heilman
1st
2
Carson Foster
scratch
3
Zach Harting
8th
4
Luca Urlando
2nd
5
Trenton Julian
7th
6
Jack Dahlgren
6th
7
Aaron Shackell
41st
8
Mason Laur
3rd
Moving In:
Dare Rose (4th), Colby Mefford (5th)
6/8
200 IM
PICKS
FINISH
1
Carson Foster
1st
2
Shaine Casas
2nd
3
Maximus Williamson
9th
4
Chase Kalisz
4th
5
Kieran Smith
3rd
6
Trenton Julian
15th*
7
Daniel Diehl
scratch
8
Arsenio Bustos
6th
Moving In:
Owen McDonald (5th), Grant House (7th), Will Modglin (8th)
5/8
*Julian scratched the semis after qualifying 15th out of the prelims.
400 IM
PICKS
FINISH
1
Carson Foster
1st
2
Chase Kalisz
2nd
3
Bobby Finke
scratch
4
Jay Litherland
3rd
5
Baylor Nelson
scratch
6
Gregg Enoch
7th
7
Mason Laur
scratch
8
Ian Grum
4th
Moving In:
Tommy Bried (5th), Kyle Ponsler (6th), Danny Berlitz (8th)
5/8
TAKEAWAYS:
Of the 29 swimmers who made finals in events we didn’t predict, three did so in multiple events: Chris Guiliano (50/200 free), Adam Chaney (50 free, 100 back) and Will Modglin (100 back, 200 IM).
Guiliano was also picked to place 3rd in the 100 free—he ended up winning that event, and was the runner-up in the two events he wasn’t picked to even final. The Notre Dame standout became the first male swimmer since Matt Biondi in 1988 to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team in the 50, 100 and 200 free.
In addition to Guiliano in the 50 and 200 free, Hunter Armstrong (100 free for the 400 free relay) and Brooks Curry (200 free for the 800 free relay) also finished in Olympic qualifying spots in events they weren’t predicted to final in.
In the women’s prediction review, we noted how certain swimmers were clearly fatigued due to taking on daunting schedules over the nine-day meet, resulting in them finishing well off their capabilities in some races after performing well earlier on. This was the case for Aaron Shackell, as he won the 400 free on Day 1, made the 200 free final by way of a swim-off after that, and then ended up 41st in the 200 fly despite being picked to place 7th.
Just like the women’s side, we correctly predicted all but two of the event winners, only missing out in the 100 free and 400 free. The 100 free saw Guiliano upend Jack Alexy, while Shackell edged out Kieran Smith in the 400 free.
We only picked the top two finishers (in either order) correctly in six of 14 events. We missed the:
50 free (#2 pick Jack Alexy was 4th, 2nd-place Chris Guiliano wasn’t picked to final)
100 free (#2 pick Caeleb Dressel was 3rd, winner Chris Guiliano was picked 3rd)
200 free (#2 pick Kieran Smith was 4th, 2nd-place Chris Guiliano wasn’t picked to final)
1500 free (#2 pick Charlie Clark was 6th, 2nd-place David Johnston was picked 7th)
200 back (#2 pick Jack Aikins was 3rd, 2nd-place Keaton Jones was picked 3rd)
100 breast (#2 pick Michael Andrew was 8th, 2nd-place Charlie Swanson was picked 8th)
200 breast (#2 pick Jake Foster was 7th, 2nd-place Josh Matheny was picked 4th)
200 fly (#2 pick Carson Foster scratched, 2nd-place Luca Urlando was picked 4th)
Paris Olympians we didn’t pick to make the team: Brooks Curry, Blake Pieroni, David Johnston, Keaton Jones, Charlie Swanson, Josh Matheny and Luca Urlando.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: Reviewing SwimSwam’s 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Event Predictions – Men’s Edition