SwimSwam Pulse: 49.6% See Women’s 200 IM World Record As Most At Risk From 2010s

By James Sutherland on SwimSwam

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which world record established in the previous decade is most on the chopping block at the upcoming Olympic Games:

Question: Which world record from the 2010s is most likely to fall at the Paris Olympics?

RESULTS

Women’s 200 IM – 49.6%
Men’s 1500 free – 24.9%
Women’s 100 free – 9.8%
Men’s 200 IM – 9.4%
Women’s 100 breast – 3.6%
Women’s 800 free – 1.4%
Men’s 100 breast – 0.8%
Women’s 1500 free – 0.6%

We’ve spent a lot of time hypothesizing about when the remaining super-suited world record will fall.

Leon Marchand took Michael Phelps‘ longstanding mark in the men’s 400 IM off the books last year, but there are still several remaining (individual), including two from Paul Biedermann, the otherworldly men’s 800 free and women’s 200 fly from China’s Zhang Lin and Liu Zige, and Cesar Cielo‘s 50 free and Aaron Peirsol‘s 200 back.

But what about the world records set in the 2010s? These swims don’t get quite as much attention, due to the significance of the super-suit era in swimming history, but when will some of those records set from 2010 through 2019 go down?

There are eight such long course records standing, and the men’s 1500 free seemed to be the clear frontrunner coming in after 45% of readers voted that 14:30 would be the next big men’s barrier to fall in January.

However, after 2023 world champion and the second-fastest fastest 1500 performer in history, Ahmed Hafnaoui, surprisingly withdrew from the Olympics, the likelihood of Sun Yang‘s world record going down seemed to diminish, if only slightly.

In the poll, it wasn’t the men’s 1500 free that came out on top. Instead, it was the women’s 200 IM, which garnered nearly half of the votes at 49.6%.

This checks out after 2:06 in the 200 IM was voted the next big barrier to fall on the women’s side.

The women’s 200 IM is arguably the most anticipated swimming event of the Games, with four of the eight-fastest performers (and seven of the top 12) in history set to go to battle.

Kate Douglass is the reigning two-time world champion (2023/2024), Alex Walsh won the world title in 2022, and Kaylee McKeown (2:06.63) and Summer McIntosh (2:06.89) rank #3 and #6 all-time, respectively, with only six women having ever been under the 2:07 threshold.

The world record stands at 2:06.12, set by Katinka Hosszu at the 2015 World Championships.

All-Time Performers, Women’s 200 IM (LCM)

Katinka Hosszu (HUN), 2:06.12 – 2015 World Championships
Ariana Kukors (USA), 2:06.15 – 2009 World Championships
Kaylee McKeown (AUS), 2:06.63 – 2024 Australian Olympic Trials
Kate Douglass (USA), 2:06.79 – 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials
Siobhan-Marie O’Connor (GBR), 2:06.88 – 2016 Olympic Games
Summer McIntosh (CAN), 2:06.89 – 2023 Canadian Trials
Stephanie Rice (AUS), 2:07.03 – 2009 World Championships
Alex Walsh (USA), 2:07.13 – 2022 World Championships
Ye Shiwen (CHN), 2:07.57 – 2012 Olympic Games
Sydney Pickrem (CAN), 2:07.68 – 2024 Canadian Olympic Trials

In Paris, the final of the women’s 200 IM will fall on the night of August 3 (Day 8), the second-last session of the Games, meaning fatigue could play a factor.

On Day 6, McIntosh will have finals of the 200 fly and 800 free relay. Douglass will have the 200 breast final. On Day 7, McKeown will have the 200 back final less than an hour before the 200 IM semi.

Walsh is the only one of the four with a light schedule in Paris, and given she’s the only one who hasn’t broken 2:07, it’s possible we see 2:06 mid-to-high win gold, leaving Hosszu’s record on the books for the foreseeable future.

At the 2016 Games in Rio, we saw Hosszu smash the world record in the 400 IM on Day 1, win an upset gold medal in the 100 back on Day 3, and then in the 200 IM on Day 4, she couldn’t reach her world record despite being on the best form of her career (based on the 400 IM performance).

When she set the world record at the 2015 World Championships, the 200 IM final was on Day 2, so she was fresh.

The men’s 1500 free was the only other option to receive more than 10% of votes, earning just under a quarter of the total.

Even without Hafnaoui, there are still four men in the field who have been under 14:35 (of the seven in history), led by American Bobby Finke who is the favorite to defend his title from Tokyo after clocking 14:31.59 at the 2023 World Championships—just over half a second back of Sun’s 2012 standard of 14:31.02.

Gregorio Paltrinieri (14:32.80), Daniel Wiffen (14:34.07) and Florian Wellbrock (14:34.89) are the other three sub-14:35, though Wiffen is the only swimmer in the world to have broken 14:40 in the 2023-24 season.

Next up was the women’s 100 free and the men’s 200 IM, both receiving more than nine percent of votes.

At the 2017 World Championships, Sarah Sjostrom busted through the 52-second barrier in 51.71, setting the 100 free world record leading off Sweden’s 400 free relay. Since then, the only other sub-52 swim on record is the 51.96 Emma McKeon produced at the Tokyo Olympics.

This season, Siobhan Haughey leads the world rankings after blitzing a 52.02 in October, the #3 swim ever, while Marrit Steenbergen and Mollie O’Callaghan are the other two who have been sub-52.5.

At the 2023 World Championships, O’Callaghan won the 100 free in 52.16 and went 52.08 leading off the Australian 400 free relay, making her arguably the top candidate to break Sjostrom’s record alongside Haughey.

In the men’s 200 IM, it comes down to Leon Marchand or Wang Shun, the 2023 world champion versus the defending Olympic champion.

Marchand joined Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps in the sub-1:55 club at the 2023 Worlds in 1:54.82, and Wang joined them two months later at the Asian Games in 1:54.62.

Lochte’s world record has stood for 13 years, having clocked 1:54.00 in 2011, and he and Phelps still combine to own the seven fastest swims ever.

If Marchand is able to take down the record, it will bring the house down in front of the Paris crowd. If it’s Wang, there will be an uproar after it was revealed he was one of the 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive for an illegal substance prior to the Tokyo Olympics.

The other event garnering more than 2% of votes was the women’s 100 breast, where Lilly King‘s record of 1:04.13 has stood since 2017 but Tang Qianting (1:04.39) and Ruta Meilutyte (1:04.62) have both come close over the last 12 months.

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